Key Takeaways
- Gen Z and millennials are expected to account for 50% of US holiday spending in 2026, the first time in Deloitte's annual survey, with Gen Z's share rising from 10% to 16%.
- Shoppers who use generative AI, search and social media together plan to spend an average of $2,893, against $1,175 for shoppers who use none of the three.
- Nearly 61 million US consumers now begin online retail research with AI, and 45% of AI shoppers say it has introduced them to stores they had not visited before.
- 89.9% of AI shoppers check an assistant's recommendation against another source, and trust in an AI answer rises from 42% to 77.2% when it cites a trusted publisher.
For years, holiday planning has been built around the household that spends the most: older, established and loyal to a handful of retailers. This season the arithmetic has moved. Deloitte now expects the two youngest adult generations to carry half of all holiday spending, and the shoppers who spend the most are the ones who research across AI assistants, search and social feeds before they buy. That changes both who a holiday plan should be built for and where it has to show up.
The Holiday Wallet Has Changed Hands
Deloitte's 2026 Holiday Retail Survey of 4,000 US consumers, fielded from August 26 to September 10, forecasts average household holiday spending of $1,654, up 4% on last year. Spending on retail goods is expected to rise 10% to $988, while spending on holiday activities falls 4%. “For the first time in our annual survey, Gen Z and millennials are expected to account for 50% of holiday spending,” said Natalie Martini, vice chair and US Retail and Consumer Products sector leader at Deloitte.
The generational shift is sharp. According to Chief Marketer's breakdown of the survey, Gen Z's share of holiday spend rises to 16% from 10% in 2025 and millennials' to 34% from 31%, while Gen X slips to 28% from 31% and baby boomers to 20% from 26%. A budget weighted toward last year's audience is now weighted toward a shrinking share of the wallet.
These younger shoppers also behave differently. Deloitte found 49% of Gen Z plan to buy a gift for themselves, against 18% of boomers, and 33% of Gen Z plan personalised or monogrammed gifts. More than a third of Gen Z (37%) want same-day delivery, and 34% rely on salespeople for luxury gifts. “Holiday shoppers are not looking for a one-size-fits-all experience,” said Brian McCarthy, Deloitte's Retail Strategy leader.
The Biggest Spenders Research Everywhere at Once
The most striking figure in the Deloitte data is about behaviour, not age. Shoppers who used search, social media and generative AI plan to spend an average of $2,893 this season. Those who used none of the three plan to spend $1,175. Chief Marketer reports that 39% of consumers use generative AI for budgeting, gift ideas, deals or price comparison, rising to 49% of Gen Z and 50% of millennials.
That pattern matches what PYMNTS Intelligence found in an August survey of 2,191 US adults: nearly 61 million consumers now begin online retail research with AI. Average quarterly spending among AI-assisted shoppers rose 17% to $1,039 in August, and 45% said AI had introduced them to online stores they had not visited before. Yet only 27% of AI shoppers say they now buy from Amazon less often, even though 59% research on AI platforms the products they once searched for on Amazon. Discovery is moving faster than the checkout is.
Budgets are also arriving early and running out early. Deloitte found 28% of shoppers expect their holiday budget to be exhausted by the end of October, the highest share in six years, and four in 10 plan to shop October sales events. For a brand that is not yet in the AI answers, search results and feeds these shoppers are using, much of the season's decision-making is already underway.
Trust Is Borrowed, and It Has to Be Earned
Heavy research does not mean blind trust. Product.ai's survey of 1,493 US adults, fielded from August 27 to September 1, found 71.5% of AI shoppers expect to use an assistant for holiday shopping, but 89.9% check its recommendations against another source, up from 85.7% in June. Only 21.6% have let an assistant complete a purchase for them. Half (50.4%) would trust an assistant less on learning a recommendation was paid for without disclosure, compared with 39.8% for a clearly labelled sponsored one.
Where shoppers verify is where brands win or lose. Raptive's September survey of 3,083 US consumers found trust in an AI answer stood at 42% with no source shown, 75.4% when it cited a creator or expert the respondent knew, and 77.2% when it cited a trusted publisher. An unfamiliar source left trust at 41.8%. Raptive sells advertising alongside publisher and creator content, so it has an interest in that finding, but the direction is consistent with the checking behaviour Product.ai measured.
For marketers, the implication is that the brand's own voice is only part of the answer. The reviews, creators, publishers and product content a shopper meets while checking an AI recommendation now carry much of the persuasion, and a brand that is absent from those sources is easy to drop from a shortlist even when an assistant surfaced it first.
A Holiday Playbook for the New Majority
- Rebalance the audience plan. With Gen Z at 16% of holiday spend and boomers down to 20%, check that media, creative and offer budgets reflect this year's spending mix, not last year's.
- Build for the three-channel shopper. Shoppers who use AI, search and social together plan to spend $2,893, so make sure product information is consistent and current wherever those three surfaces draw from.
- Earn the citation, not just the click. Trust in an AI answer nearly doubles when it cites a known publisher or creator, so invest in the reviews, editorial coverage and creator content that assistants and shoppers verify against.
- Label anything sponsored. Undisclosed paid placement cut trust for 50.4% of AI shoppers against 39.8% for labelled sponsorship, so disclose plainly rather than hope it goes unnoticed.
- Make personalisation and self-gifting easy. With 49% of Gen Z buying for themselves and a third planning personalised gifts, use first-party data to tailor offers, wish lists and loyalty rewards to the individual.
- Move the calendar forward. With 28% of budgets expected to run out by the end of October, the campaigns that matter most for these shoppers need to be live now, not on Black Friday.
The holiday shopper this year is younger, researches in more places and checks more of what it is told. The brands that win the season will be the ones that are easy to find in an AI answer, easy to verify in a trusted source and quick to buy from once the decision is made.
